When you combine a Weak La Nina in November with a Negative QBO, the result is much colder, and lasting through winter. I recently wrote about Signals For A Cold Start To Winter We did have a blockbuster 14.9” snowstorm in Baltimore during the La Nina of January 2000. However, 1 in 6 La Nina events since 1950 brought near average snowfall. This is based on those storms turning up the Ohio Valley and leaving our region on the warmer side. The typical La Nina Pattern brings storms into the Northwest coast of the US, and this maps shows the expected path across the country. Perhaps higher chance for Lake Effect snow in the mountains.Īlso See: The entire NOAA Winter Outlook reportĭid you see my report on The La Nina Advisory? This is suggesting near average rain or snow for most of the region. Western Maryland and West Virginia leaning 33% to 40% above chance of above normal precipitation. This covers the entire season, and does NOT account for cold spells in between.Įqual chances for above, near normal, or below normal. Simply a better chance it may be above average. This does NOT promise a warm winter or how warm it may be. “Leaning Above” as shown in the map legend on the lower right. Leaning 40% to 50% probability chance that the seasonal average will be above average. Highlighting The Mid Atlantic Region Temperature Outlook: Warmer? “The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.” Quote in the NOAA report, but it is buried at the bottom. However, I look for a silver lining and there is a big one in this report! I do love snow (Faith in the Flakes), but I do not let that cloud my judgement when assessing and presenting to the public. I play this game as well, and will continue to share my insight along with multiple reports on this topic. Second, long range weather forecasting have odds of being wrong or right about equal amounts of time. First, La Nina is a major factor in just about all forecasts. I can guarantee two things for sure at this point. It is there in the maps and at the bottom of their report. In fact, actually just read the fine print. This one may look warm, however I encourage all to read between the lines. We are in the middle of a barrage of long range forecasts for the season ahead, and I want to help sort through the mix of information. This is the time frame to pay attention and start a backup contingency plan for Sunday and Monday events.NOAA has just issued their Winter Outlook for the United States to cover December 2021 through February 2022. Still NOT in agreement and still too early for specifics. This Model also changed a lot and now brings the Low well inland for a rain event. I expect there will be more fluctuation in plots over the net few days. Yesterday this model had the storm well off the coast. In between could be anything from a slushy snow to icy mix. This is only one solution, and a closer looks highlights how much the results can vary.Įarly Monday morning we can see this latest solution bringing heavy snow inland and rain along and east to the Bay. Note: The energy is currently over the Pacific Ocean and this particular storm has not formed yet. It develops a storm that rides up The Chesapeake Bay Monday morning. The specifics of the track are less certain. This snapshot shows the deep trough and Upper Level Low right over our region Monday morning. Weather Almanac: Climate Data TODAY January 12 Temps will thaw for most of the region into the upper 30s to mid 40s. A cold start, but High Pressure is dominating much of the Eastern US. It looks more likely there will be an event, but still a big split on track and resulting snow or rain. Next Up: That strong storm is expected at the end of the weekend. In fact, a little warming to the 40s for many areas over the next couple of days may help take the sting out of the air. This morning is still cold, but with light wind it should feel better.
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